Ten years after the UK entered into a hasty referendum that split the nation and unleashed disorder, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly fraught and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue this point is looming, and a group called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there could be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unity has obscured the absence of serious debate, said McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or activists want to engage even with the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unification or the status quo. Each authors two essays that aim for neutrality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument against, marshalling economic and societal data, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments range over national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and encourage conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," stated O’Toole. "Debate implies an recognition of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they prefer unity but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his generation is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, legitimate arguments, he stated. "Somebody will prevail here and somebody will in the end be defeated but each side has has important lessons to acquire from the other's viewpoints."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster must join the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
