Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency triggered by the introduction of a new 28-article proposal for ending the war appeared – briefly – to have been defused. A Washington representative spoke of "substantial progress" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its response: another massive barrage of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare
The sequence of opposing developments captured the bleak nature of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: optimistic declarations are delivered from multiple capitals. Significant resources is allocated on restraining particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "settlement".
After-Dark Attacks
As military strikes progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is capable of detecting projectile deployments from Russian territory, a capacity afforded by current data. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been scrambled to engage hostile cruise missiles flew past – advanced fighter aircraft provided to Ukraine by NATO members.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons thundered: multiple launches deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a modern interception technology at work, most likely delivered by Western nations. Every firing shakes the surroundings, rattling buildings. The moment of terror quickly transforms into resigned acknowledgment: possibly the incoming missile won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from devastation and further power outages.
Persistent Threats
Not long after, a automatic firearm opened up on a aerial vehicle somewhere nearby, part of a rapid response unit – probably imported technology. Sadly, the bullets missed the opposing UAV – it pressed on overhead toward its destination.
Periodically, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv greeted the daybreak reports: multiple fatalities, damage and utility failures in multiple buildings as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As typically, everyone still maintained normal activities – living the war. But those full day demonstrated Ukraine's vital need on external assistance – a need that neighboring countries are evidently unprepared to substitute in the near term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The detailed framework from US administration sparked intense emotion, debate and serious worry – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after prior negotiation attempts and bilateral conferences.
Every new approach from Washington adheres to the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, succeeds in resisting. They stabilise the situation but never actually secure success. This cycle will, no doubt, continue.
Political Considerations
It is convenient to criticize specific actors of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. US administration functions according to a premise familiar among experienced diplomats: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have failed to defend militarily. The White House believes that it is impossible to force Russia to abandon the territory that it presently holds in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The issue is that while accepting these circumstances, American administration does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through diplomacy or military means, from thinking that the status quo will not evolve additionally in its advantage in the months ahead.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, the Kremlin is certain that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its supporters are approaching exhaustion. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is close to zero. There may be numerous efforts to end hostilities, but they will continue as long as Russia's leadership remains supremely confident in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still persist, progressively conceding lives and land but averting a complete military breakdown until situations evolve in its favour.
Existing Situation
Factually, there are no actual prerequisites for a armistice. Now, subjective factors are entering the equation: political desires to negotiate peace and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Kyiv's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to unite the population around the national cause against any initiative Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their attention does not move to homefront challenges. And although their task will now be significantly challenging after recent developments, it remains very improbable that this will change their overall approach.
These two forces are influencing discussions.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a only one week to terminate the proposed articles of the current initiative. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by US administration, pushback by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with soothing efforts of diplomats, and finally, current information leaks, all achieved their purpose.
While new plans based on previous concepts are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and show specific hesitation to modify developments, if they stand together and enhance their military capacity at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the predictable period, mainly require continued Western support.
