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Usually, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year honor follows a straightforward formula. It commonly serves as a form of mea culpa. Our apologies we got wrong your franchise in our pre-campaign projections.

In theory, it's a direct line: the coach who engineered the biggest improvement is handed the prize. However, it creates an annual discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly honoring superior coaching or simply the greatest shock.

However the latest field is distinctly unique. The pool of contenders is remarkably talented. It has been the year of comebacks. The NFL has been unpredictable, with reigning conference winners fading and longtime underperformers rising collectively. During an ordinary season, Sean Payton guiding the Denver Broncos to the top of the AFC would make him the clear front-runner. Yet in such a chaotic and thrilling year, he's competing with several other outstanding candidates.

This is how the projected ballot should look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by QBs. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you fix a quarterback, you're halfway to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach didn't merely corrected Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. In the right ecosystem, Williams has been afforded the opportunity to showcase his otherworldly talent. Since midseason onward, the Bears rank number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a lucky run – it's prolonged excellence. Under Johnson, Williams has become more decisive, far less reckless, and has eagerly surrendered to the system instead of improvising. It is an offense designed entirely in Johnson's image: a bully-ball run game, a steady helping of play-action and a imaginative aerial game that creates wide-open receivers everywhere. The QB has capitalized. And when openings haven't been available, he's been capable to spin big plays from broken plays.

The coach came to the Bears with a clear offensive philosophy. Virtually each gamble – overhauling the offensive line, featuring the tight ends, turning the QB into a timing-based thrower – has succeeded. That's uncommon for a rookie head coach. And it's rarer still for a coach who entered the organization with the level of expectations Johnson did. For two straight offseasons, he was the top name on the coaching market. However when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are no guarantees. Somehow, he has met the hype – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not just to be a scheme genius but the type of culture builder that can inject fresh energy into an organization.

In a ordinary season, Johnson would be the overwhelming choice. Yet the current is not a typical year!

The area where his case comes a bit into trouble is on defense. The Chicago defense presently sit 25th in defensive efficiency. They are relying on takeaways, and takeaways are notoriously fickle. Defensive minds can focus on creating turnovers, but nobody can guarantee it. He is on the list because the offensive production is sustainable. He's ranked lower because variance is doing an outsized share of the defense's work. If not for a few breaks of the ball, the team would be two wins behind. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the foundation is in place for long-term winning. However he falls just short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar situation to his counterpart. He's a fellow rookie leader who has masterminded a swift resurgence. Over the stretch run of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best all-around ball of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defensive unit that now sits at fifth in the NFL in EPA per play.

Even more impressively, he has mastered the off-field stuff, which was not a given following his initial public appearances and some of his offseason decisions.

The coach walked into the Jaguars with an exceptionally inexperienced staff. Unlike Johnson, who packed their staff with the ideal staff mix of new ideas and veteran savvy, he trusted newbies. Starting with the head coach himself to coordinators to position coaches, the Jags are filled with rookies. That type of approach is exciting in theory, but frequently fails in reality – with other teams are a warning – because everybody is figuring out a their job in real-time. But Coen has pulled everyone and all elements together.

After an early strong start, there was a possibility that the season would veer off the track. A midseason setback had the team wobbling once more. That's typically when coaches overcorrect. Coen did not. Instead, he streamlined things. Jacksonville stopped pursuing explosive answers and started hunting reliable ones. Coen refocused the offense around key players and the ground attack, and asked his QB to use his mobility more.

The outcomes are evident. The Jaguars have won multiple games in a row and will be the conference's No 3 seed. He gets the tiniest deduction in the standings because he inherited a skilled team, but he has proven he can maximize that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Each Strong of the Year argument has a pivotal moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB decision.

Parting ways from a incumbent, bringing in a new quarterback and partnering him with an new play-caller might have ended the campaign in the early weeks. Rather, it made it. Through the mid point of the year, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has regressed since that time, dropping to a lower rank in efficiency per dropback over the second half of the schedule, putting him only one place ahead of other QBs.

Still